For what it's worth, here is how I see this year's field:
1. Black Onyx (Joe
Bravo, Kelly Breen) 50-1
Won the Spiral at Turfway over a weak field, but could have
been a nice super longshot (especially in the exotics) but that was before he
landed the 1 hole. Too bad, because he’s a pretty, pretty boy.
2. Oxbow (Gary
Stevens, D. Wayne Lukas) 30-1
Ran a nice race in the Rebel but was 5th in the
Arkansas Derby. Gary Stevens says he learned a lot and plans to ride him
differently on Saturday. Pros: Gary Stevens has returned to the Kentucky Derby,
and he’s riding for D. Wayne Lukas. Sound familiar? Cons: Hasn’t gotten a great
clocker’s report from Churchill, and the 2 hole means he could get crushed out
of the gate.
3. Revolutionary
(Calvin Borel, Todd Pletcher) 10-1
Won the Louisiana Derby in a close one over My Lute. Has
looked good at Churchill all week. He’s one of the Pletcher Circus and will be
down on the rail with Calvin Borel. Because of Calvin, he’ll get mugged at the
windows.
4. Golden Soul (Robby
Albarado, Dallas Stewart) 50-1
Ran 4th in the Louisiana Derby. A win by him
would be about as shocking as Mine That Bird in 2009, but after that happened I
learned not to say “This horse can only win if the other starting gates don’t
open.”
5. Normandy Invasion
(Javier Castellano, Chad Brown) 12-1
I will admit, I am totally biased to this horse. That said,
he’s looked great at Churchill, Chad Brown is as hot of a trainer as can be
right now, and I believe this is his first Derby. He was a steadily closing
second in the Wood Memorial to undefeated Verrazano and ran against a slow
pace. He might have to do that again here, so the question is whether he can
stay out of traffic and get a clear run. He’s my pick. Unfortunately he’s a
“hot” horse for a lot of people, so that 12-1 is probably an overlay.
6. Mylute (Rosie
Napravnik, Tom Amoss) 15-1
He was a nice second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby,
and could very well be a nice live long shot. I think the 15-1 will go up,
unless everyone backs him because of Rosie Napravnik, who has come out as a racing
celebrity in addition to being a damned good jockey. Reports from Churchill
indicate he looks great and is ready to go.
7. Giant Finish (Jose
Espinosa, Anthony Dutrow) 50-1
This horse is only running because his owner declared “You
only live once.”
8. Goldencents (Kevin
Krigger, Doug O'Neill) 5-1
I ignored the Santa Anita Derby winner last year and he won,
and I’m ignoring him again this year. If I have to see Rick Pitino in the
winner’s circle I might throw myself off a bridge. What sucks is the lack of
speed in this race will probably set him up really well.
9. Overanalyze
(Rafael Bejarano, Todd Pletcher) 15-1
Wanna go out on a limb? Of Todd Pletcher’s army he might be the
best value. Not a lot of buzz about the Arkansas Derby winner, who many think
is too slow. But he ran a 99 Beyer as a 2 year old and beat Normandy Invasion
in the Remsen. He’ll be higher than 15-1 by the time the gates open (probably a
lot higher), and it’s not impossible he could pull it off.
10. Palace Malice
(Mike Smith, Todd Pletcher) 20-1
Finished up the track in the Louisiana Derby after a bad
trip then wheeled around to be second by a neck in the Bluegrass to Java’s War.
I have not had good luck with Bluegrass form transferring to the Derby (with
the exception of my bro Dullahan). Hard to know how good he is and whether he
likes dirt. I know he’s a Curlin, but his female family screams turf. Of Pletcher’s mob I’m least interested. Though
it’s a fun name, and hey, Mike Smith.
11. Lines of Battle
(Ryan Moore, Aidan O'Brien) 30-1
I know pretty much nothing about this horse. He comes from
overseas, and haven’t heard anyone say much of anything about him.
12. Itsmyluckyday
(Elvis Trujillo, Eddie Plesa, Jr.) 15-1
This horse has a lot of buzz on the backside. A lot of
people like him, but he’s not caught a lot of “mainstream” attention, and
therefore might be the best bang for your buck. He won the Holy Bull down at
Gulfstream but got run down by Orb in the Florida Derby. Also ran back to back
100+ Beyer speed figures at Gulfstream before the Florida Derby. If he’s not
the only horse to do that this year, he’s one of the only ones. Classy horse,
likes to lay just off the pace. This post position should suit him well.
13. Falling Sky (Luis
Saez, John Terranova II) 50-1
This is probably the horse we’ll see on the lead. We last
saw him running 5th to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby, and before
that he was third to Verrazano and Java’s War in the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s a
nice horse but 1 ¼ miles is probably not for him. Takes a pretty special horse
to wire the field, but even in a year that will be favorable to front runners I
don’t think he’s the next War Emblem.
14. Verrazano (John
Velazquez, Todd Pletcher) 4-1
This was your Derby favorite until everyone developed an
obsession for Orb. Despite being undefeated I’ve hardly heard this name at all
this week, which is good news for people who like him as he might actually wind
up being an underlay. He won the Wood Memorial after duking things out with
Normandy Invasion and Vyjack down the stretch. No reason not to like him. I’ll
probably overlook him. Hey, I overlooked Gemologist last year and it didn’t
hurt me. Who’s Gemologist, you ask? Exactly.
15. Charming Kitten
(Edgar Prado, Todd Pletcher) 20-1
My standard “Always Bet the Kitten Horse” rule does not
apply at the Kentucky Derby. This horse’s first two starts this year were on turf, including a win in his daddy’s race (the Kitten’s Joy) back in January.
He then switched to Polytrack when he ran 3rd in the Bluegrass.
Hasn’t run on dirt. Neither did Animal Kingdom, you ask? Yeah, well, that was
Animal Kingdom. I picked Animal Kingdom. Not picking the Kitten.
16. Orb (Joel
Rosario, Shug McGaughey) 7-2
This is your Derby favorite. He’s drawn raves from the
backside this week, and won the fight for “best workout.” He’s undefeated in
all 3 starts this year, including the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. This
is impressive in itself, but even more so when you factor in he’s a stone cold
closer and was running against a speed bias in all 3. Joel Rosario is so hot is
pants are on fire, and I don’t mean because he’s cute. Also, Shug McMcGaughey
has been on cloud 9 ever since his arrival. Shug doesn’t run unless he believes
he’s got something (anyone remember Easy Goer? I do, because I have a poster of
him and Sunday Silence framed in my bathroom). This is a favorite I can get
behind.
17. Will Take Charge
(Jon Court, D. Wayne Lukas) 20-1
It’s amazing how I’ve totally changed my attitude towards D.
Wayne Lukas. He used to irk me the way Todd Pletcher irks me now, but these
days when I see him at Churchill on Derby week I just grin. I like his other
horse Oxbow better, but how many times has Lukas won the Derby with his more
lightly regarded entry? Most of them? Right.
18. Frac Daddy
(Victor Lebron, Kenny McPeek) 50-1
I don’t know much about him, other than he was second to
Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby and up the track in the Florida Derby and
Holy Bull. Pass.
19. Java's War
(Julien Leparoux, Kenny McPeek) 15-1
Here’s your Bluegrass Winner, who was also 2nd in
the Tampa Bay Derby to Verrazano. He closed from dead last to steal the
Bluegrass at the wire. I think he needs to step up here to make some noise, but
it could happen. Post position sucks, but if he can drop in at the start and
find a way to save ground that might help him, but if he has to circle the
field once he makes his move that might be too much to overcome. Ken McPeek and
Julien Leparoux are my Keeneland homeboys, so I’ll be happy if he can pull it
off.
20. Vyjack (Garrett
Gomez, Rudy Rodriguez) 15-1
Yuck. This is a nice horse who was going to be overlooked
anyway, but especially now that he got exiled to the 20 hole. He was a very
close third in the Wood Memorial to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion and is a really
nice hose, but he likes to lay closer to the lead. He’ll have to break well and
gun it to get in position, which might mean doing too much too early.
AE Fear the Kitten
(Alan Garcia, Mike Maker)
This horse only runs if someone scratches. Same Kitten rule
applies.
Conclusions:
Easy Money*:
·
Orb
Smart Money:
·
Itsmyluckyday
·
Normandy Invasion
You’re Buying Dinner
Tonight
·
Mylute
·
Oxbow
You Can’t Pick
Everyone (Also known as, I Don’t Care For Todd Pletcher Even When He Has
Good Horses)
·
Verrazano
·
Java’s War
·
Overanalyze
·
Revolutionary
*This is a
lie. There is no easy money. It’s the Kentucky Derby.
Bonus handicapping!
Kentucky Oaks*:
Easy Money
·
Dreaming of Julia
Smart Money
·
Midnight Lucky
·
Close Hatches
You’re Buying Dinner
Tonight
·
Rose to Gold
Can’t Pick Everyone
·
Beholder
·
Unlimited Budget
*This is a REALLY good field.
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